MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll released this week shows Wisconsin voters have yet to really tune into the 2026 governor's race. That's good news for Mandela Barnes, who is still thinking about jumping into the race.
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The poll found 70% of Republicans have not made a primary choice, and 81% Democrats are in the same position, with the election one year away.
17 candidates are currently running according to the Wisconsin Ethics Commission's website.
The poll shows Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany with better name recognition than Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, 39% vs 17%.
The primary field for Democrats is far more crowded. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez share nearly the same name identification, 26% vs 25%. State Rep. Francesca Hong, 22%; state Senator Kelda Roys, 17%; former WEDC Secretary Missy Hughes, 16%; and former state Representative Brett Hulsey, 15%.
Barnes was not polled in the Marquette survey. The Milwaukee Democrat was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2018 but narrowly lost an expensive race in 2022 for the U.S. Senate. If he decides to run for governor in 2026, what is the risk-reward challenge for Barnes?
Wisconsin's history isn't very kind when candidates try to make a political comeback. Republican Tommy Thompson found that out in 2012 when he ran for a U.S. Senate seat. Despite being a record four-term elected governor, Thompson lost to Democrat Tammy Baldwin by 177,000 votes after being out of elected office for a dozen years.
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Democrat Russ Feingold also learned the hard way. He tried to come back in 2016 —six years after losing his senate seat to Republican Ron Johnson. The rematch showed Johnson winning again by about 100,000 votes.
Can it be done? Republican Bob Kasten did it in 1980. Kasten narrowly beat incumbent Democrat Gaylord Nelson in a U.S. Senate race after losing a statewide Republican primary in 1978.
"It's not unheard of for somebody to lose and come back and run again, but more often the result is more of the same," said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin.
Barnes certainly has name recognition. In a Badger Battleground poll released in early October, Barnes was out front with 16% support, double that of any other candidate in the race.
As he contemplates a political comeback, others have weighed in on a potential Barnes run. The Milwaukee Courier editorial dropped a not-so-subtle headline about the 2026 race by suggesting, "...we can't risk another Mandela Barnes' loss."
The New York Times also did a story that hinted some in his party were hesitant about Barnes running in 2026
For his part, Barnes's Political Action Committee did a poll with 500 likely voters in early October showing him leading in a hypothetical head-to-head race against two Republicans. Barnes vs Tom Tiffany 50% vs 44% and up on Tim Michels, who is not a candidate in the race for governor, 51% vs 44%. Governor Tony Evers beat Michels in 2022, 51% vs 48%, a 90,000-vote difference.
Franklin says with a year to go until the election, any former candidate jumping in still has time, but will perhaps have more explaining to do with voters.
"That is a real advantage for coming back into a race at this point when none of the other competitors are particularly well known," said Franklin. But you've also got to explain how come this time will be different than it was last time."
The Marquette Poll was done during the week of October 15-22 with 846 Wisconsin registered voters. The sample size for the Republican primary was 406 registered voters, 378 for Democrats.
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