A new poll finds Democrat David Crowley where he has not been in prior weeks - the frontrunner in the race for governor.
The Milwaukee County Executive holds a narrow early lead over Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany 48% to 44% statewide, according to a Badger Battleground Poll.
"We will continue meeting folks in every corner of the state and talk about how I will lower costs, fund our public schools, and build a brighter future for our kids and grandkids as the next governor of Wisconsin,” Crowley said in a statement about the poll.
It's the first head-to-head ballot test in the 2026 Wisconsin race for governor. It comes days after a dramatic Democratic primary.
Tiffany also responded to the poll results. “I’m focused on lowering taxes, cutting costs, and letting Wisconsin families keep more of their hard-earned money."
Opening for Both Candidates
The two candidates enter the general election with notably different profiles among voters, according to the poll. Tiffany is seen favorably by 38% of voters and unfavorably by 43%. Crowley is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 26%, but 31% of voters say they don't yet know enough about him to form an opinion.
The Badger Battleground Poll was commissioned by Platform Communications.
Keith Gilkes is a Republican strategist and Executive Chairman of Platform Communications — the firm that commissioned the poll. He said the results show a path forward for Republicans despite the early deficit.
"Tom Tiffany is starting slightly down, but a four-point deficit in August is hardly insurmountable," Gilkes said in a statement about the poll. "Crowley's name ID is significantly lower than Tiffany's, leaving more room for Republicans to define him and his record. Wisconsin voters are unhappy with the direction of the state. The question for Republicans will be whether Tiffany can turn that dissatisfaction into a compelling case for change."
Democratic strategist and Badger Battleground Poll Advisor Tanya Bjork said voter frustration creates openings for both candidates.
"Wisconsin voters are not particularly happy," Bjork said in a statement . "That creates an opening for both candidates. Crowley has the advantage right now, but he will have to convince voters that Democrats deserve another four years in the governor's office. Tiffany has an opportunity to make the election about change, but he has to overcome his own negatives first."
Evers vs Trump
Governor Tony Evers endorsed and campaigned for Crowley ahead of the primary. Crowley won the primary after stepping out of the race and re-entering 10 days later.
President Trump's early endorsement gave Tiffany an advantage to win the Republican primary.
A 51% majority of likely voters say Wisconsin is headed in the wrong direction. Gov. Tony Evers maintains a modestly positive standing inthe poll, with 49% viewing him favorably. 56% of likely voters hold an unfavorable view of President Donald Trump, according to the poll.
Independent Voters and Debates
Both candidates will look to energize their political bases before Election Day, November 3. But the state's Independent voters could determine the outcome.
Crowley currently leads Tiffany among Independents 42% to 30% in the Badger Battleground Poll.
TMJ4 has invited David Crowley and Tom Tiffany to debate on October 8 at UW-Milwaukee in a town hall format, in partnership with the Intergovernmental Cooperation Council of Milwaukee County, a body representing local governments across the region. The debate will focus on city, suburban and rural issues. Neither campaign has publicly confirmed their participation.
The Badger Battleground Poll is designed with input from both a Republican and Democratic strategist, offering a view of what is considered a key battleground state in the country.
The survey of 500 likely general election voters was conducted through live telephone interviews on Aug. 12-13, immediately after the Democratic and Republican primaries concluded.
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