MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll offers a partial look at the Wisconsin Democratic governor's race — but it comes with a significant caveat: the poll was conducted before David Crowley rejoined the race after Sara Rodriguez dropped out last week.
Despite the incomplete picture, two key takeaways emerge from the data. Forty-five percent of Democratic voters say they are still undecided, and Francesca Hong leads the Democratic primary field for the fourth consecutive time in the Marquette poll.
Hong holds 26% support among Democratic primary voters in the head-to-head matchup captured while Crowley was out of the race. The rest of the field includes Mandela Barnes with 15%. Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out of the race at 11%, Joel Brennan at 2% and Kelda Roys at 1%.
Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin said the timing of the poll reflects where primary voters typically are at this stage of a race.
Watch: A new Marquette Law School Poll shows 45% of Democratic voters are undecided in the Wisconsin governor's race
"We've seen in all of our previous years of primary polling that voters really tune in in the last few weeks of the campaign. So this is the period when they're tuning in. Because these events have been so dramatic, I expect interest in the governor's race to really pop up in a way that it wasn't popping up two weeks ago," Franklin said.
The poll did capture support for Rodriguez before she withdrew from the race. Where her supporters will shift remains an open question.
Also unknown is what impact Gov. Tony Evers' last-minute endorsement of Crowley will have as Crowley relaunches his campaign. Evers remains highly popular within the Democratic Party.
"The open question is whether that high popularity among Democrats translates into influence in supporting the candidate that he endorses and how many people have heard of that endorsement and aware of it and do they think that's something that pushes them to vote for Crowley or not," Franklin said.
In general election matchups, Mandela Barnes — the former lieutenant governor and 2022 Democratic U.S. Senate candidate — holds the biggest lead among registered voters against Republican Tom Tiffany, who has been endorsed by President Trump for governor. Hong is tied with Tiffany among likely voters.
Franklin noted that uncertainty extends to the general election matchups as well.
"The undecided rate is in the mid to upper teens. So there too, there's a fair bit of undecided, even when people can line up on their partisan teams," Franklin said.
Marquette is back in the field for another poll to capture voter sentiment with Crowley now back in the race. Results are expected Wednesday, July 29.
This story was reported on-air by Charles Benson and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
It’s about time to watch on your time. Stream local news and weather 24/7 by searching for “TMJ4” on your device.
Available for download on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, and more.
