Friday afternoon into Friday evening Southeast Wisconsin will need to stay weather aware - strong to severe storms are expected to move through the area. Areas of rain and thundershowers will move through this morning and early afternoon, but activity early in the day looks to remain below severe limits.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of Southeast Wisconsin under an 'enhanced risk' area, highlighting the potential for numerous severe storms.
The TMJ4 Storm Team in-house weather model, stopped in time around 3pm Friday afternoon, shows scattered storms cells moving through our area. These storms will pose a risk for hail, strong winds, and heavy rain.
As we move into the evening, it appears the hail threat will lessen, but the damaging wind threat will increase, and there will also be a risk for spin up tornadoes.
Keep in mind, timing and placement of thunderstorms will not line up exactly with what the model shows. Also, if we continue to see ongoing rain and hold on to substantial cloud cover through the day, that could help lessen our severe weather risk. Exact timing will likely change a little with new model runs, just keep in mind that the weather from Friday afternoon into the evening could pose a threat, especially to anyone caught outdoors.
Overall, the threat looks like this - the biggest concern will be damaging winds, but there is also a risk for a few tornadoes, hail, and some isolated pockets of heavy rain.
Rainfall amounts for most places will likely range from 0.50"-2", with a few places seeing slightly more or less rain.
It will become increasingly humid this afternoon with dew points climbing to around 70° by mid day.
Stay with TMJ4 throughout the day for the most up to date forecast information. Also, be sure you have a way to get information about incoming storms, through a weather radio or Storm Shield app, or both.