Texas and Iowa Senate races have moved from "lean Republican" to toss-up status, according to the Cook Political Report, as voters grapple with rising gas prices, a $40 trillion national debt, and escalating tensions with Iran.
The Cook Political Report shifted the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Tallarico to toss-up status this week, a significant development in a state that has reliably voted Republican. The Iowa Senate race between Josh Turk and Ashley Hinson also moved to toss-up.
NBC's Kristen Welker, moderator of Meet the Press, said the shift in Texas raises questions about Paxton as a candidate — something Tallarico has worked to highlight on the campaign trail.
"This week, the Cook Political Report shifted the Texas Senate race from lean Republican to toss-up, so that heated race between Ken Paxton and James Tallarico, now a toss-up in reliably red Texas," Welker said.
Republicans are also keeping a closer eye on Alaska and Michigan, where a race against Abdul Al-Sayed that once seemed manageable now looks more competitive.
"Republicans saying, look, if gas prices don't start to come down soon, it's going to make the races that much tougher, but it speaks to just how challenging this national environment is for Republicans," Welker said.
Gas prices above $4 a gallon are adding to the pressure, and Welker noted that Democrats are not without their own challenges, pointing to visible divisions within the party.
On the economy, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the country must grow its way out of the $40 trillion debt. Vice President JD Vance echoed that position, saying the administration has a plan to do so — though specific details and a timeline have not been laid out.
The Trump administration also issued a warning of "unprecedented" economic warfare against Iran and any country that does business with Iran. Bessent suggested that maximum economic pressure would make a large-scale military restart less likely, but the specifics of what that pressure would look like have not been announced.
Welker said a key question hanging over the Iran strategy is how much room remains to escalate economically.
"What's left to sanction when it comes to Iran. The country is already so heavily sanctioned, so a lot of unknowns when it comes to what is going to happen next in Iran," Welker said.
Welker also pointed to the broader political implications of ongoing foreign entanglements for a president who campaigned on keeping the U.S. out of foreign wars.
"This is a president who promised to keep America out of foreign wars. Now it is engaged in yet another foreign war with no off-ramp in sight, and that's adding to some of the jitters that we're seeing within the Republican Party about how all of this might impact their chances in November," Welker said.
Watch Kristen Welker on Meet the Press, Sunday's at 8 a.m. on TMJ 4.
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