MADISON, Wis. — Some of the top research and analysis in the country on hurricanes isn’t happening by an ocean, but instead in Wisconsin's capital city, Madison.
The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is helping predict what will happen with Hurricane Ian.
In order to track the path and intensity of a hurricane, it takes some of the country's top minds in science working together. Research scientist Sarah Griffin at the Institute says they do not need to be near a hurricane to analyze it. They can use satellites to provide the National Hurricane Centers forecasters with the data and predictions on Hurricane Ian.
"We give current analysis to the forecasters to help them make their forecast,” said Griffin.
Griffin is also working to develop an artificial intelligence program to predict one of the hardest things to determine in hurricane meteorology, rapid intensification.
"The last thing you want is what actually happened in Ian today, was it rapidly intensified before making landfall. When I went to sleep last night, it was a 105-knot hurricane. When I woke up, it was 135 knots,” said Griffin.
Griffin compares that to being told there will be a strong rainstorm, and overnight it turns into an intense blizzard. She is developing artificial intelligence to predict that acceleration. It is something that will become more critical as climate shifts.
“We do think we are seeing an upward trend in the category of storms and we can directly correlate that with warmer waters in the ocean cause that is the heat engine that drives a storm. The warmer the water, the stronger the hurricanes can get. And in this case, the waters were above average and we ended up with a Category 4, almost a Category 5,” said Derrick Herndon, a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.
Ian is not an anomaly, according to Herndon. The Institute where Herndon and Griffin work is one of just 18 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sites in the country. Their work is getting called on more and more as the U.S. continues to get hit by severe storms, something Herndon contributes to climate change.
“Just in the last five years, we have had five Category 4 or stronger hurricanes make landfall in the United States and this will be six. That's a lot of upper ends, top of the scale, category hurricanes making landfall,” said Herndon.
These scientists will continue to monitor Ian as it crosses Florida and is predicted to make another landfall somewhere on the East Coast. They will continue to give their analysis of what's predicted to the National Hurricane Center.
