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Evers, Johnson hold slim leads in Wisconsin elections, Marquette poll finds

For the governor's race, the poll states 47 percent of respondents supported Evers while 44 percent supported Republican challenger Tim Michels.
Tim Michels and Tony Evers
Posted at 12:47 PM, Sep 14, 2022
and last updated 2022-09-14 19:12:35-04

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School poll found incumbents Gov. Tony Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson hold "slim leads" against their opponents ahead of Wisconsin's elections on Nov. 8.

Poll findings on Wisconsin Senate election

The poll released Wednesday states 49 percent of respondents said they support Johnson while 48 percent said they support Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. That's compared to 51 percent for Barnes and 44 percent for Johnson in the Marquette poll in August.

Poll findings on Wisconsin governor election

For the governor's race, the poll states 47 percent of respondents supported Evers while 44 percent supported Republican challenger Tim Michels. A remaining 5 percent supported the independent candidate who has since ended her campaign.

That's compared to 48 percent supporting Evers and 44 percent for Michels in August. The month before that in June, it was Evers 48 percent, Michels 41 percent.

General election findings, according to poll

The poll also found that supporters of the political parties remain loyal. 92 percent of respondents identifying as Republicans supported Michels, while 95 percent of respondents identifying as Democrats supported Evers. Meanwhile, Johnson is supported by 97 percent of Republicans and Barnes is supported by 96 percent of Democrats, the poll found.

Among respondents who said they are independent, Evers received 25 percent while Michels received 39 percent. Among the same group of respondents, Johnson received 48 percent while Barnes received 46 percent.

Among respondents who said they are registered voters, 77 percent of Republicans, 80 percent of Democrats and 91 percent of independents said they are "absolutely certain" to vote in the Nov. 8 election.

The survey was done Sept. 6-11, 2022 and interviewed 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error among likely voters is +/- 4.9 percentage points, according to the poll.

Read the full Marquette Law School Poll on their website.

View more of the poll's summary below:

Table 1: Vote for Wisconsin governor

(a) Likely voters

Poll datesEversMichelsBeglingerOtherDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2247445030
8/10-15/2248444021

(b) Registered voters

Poll datesEversMichelsBeglingerOtherDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2244438140
8/10-15/2245437032
6/14-20/224841NA282

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates, among likely voters in August and September and among registered voters since June.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate

(a) Likely voters

Poll datesBarnesJohnsonNeitherDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/224849110
8/10-15/225245011

(b) Registered voters

Poll datesBarnesJohnsonNeitherDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/224748330
8/10-15/225144131
6/14-20/224644172

Table 3: Vote for governor among likely voters, by party identification

(a) September

Party IDEversMichelsBeglingerOtherDon’t knowRefused
Republican3922031
Independent453911050
Democrat9542000

(b) August

Party IDEversMichelsBeglingerOtherDon’t knowRefused
Republican5922010
Independent49387042
Democrat9423001

Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4, among likely voters.

Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate among likely voters, by party identification

(a) September

Party IDBarnesJohnsonNeitherDon’t knowRefused
Republican297100
Independent4648230
Democrat964000

(b) August

Party IDBarnesJohnsonNeitherDon’t knowRefused
Republican694000
Independent5540033
Democrat990000

Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Likelihood of voting, by party identification

(a) September

Party IDAbsolutely certainVery likely50-50Will not vote
Republican771633
Independent7113123
Democrat801270

(b) August

Party IDAbsolutely certainVery likely50-50Will not vote
Republican831142
Independent6616143
Democrat82855

Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting

How likely to voteEversMichelsBeglingerOtherDon’t know
Among all registered voters4443814
Those “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote4544604
Only those “absolutely certain” to vote4744503

Table 7: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certainty of voting

How likely to voteBarnesJohnsonNeitherDon’t know
All registered voters474833
Those “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote474912
Only those “absolutely certain” to vote484911

Perceived candidate traits

Table 8 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with respondents who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

Table 8: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [name below] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (Among registered voters.)

(a) Evers

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/224545730
8/10-15/224641660
6/14-20/2244421120

(b) Michels

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2234391981
8/10-15/22333324100
6/14-20/2222225150

(c) Beglinger

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/223663280

(d) Barnes

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2233322591
8/10-15/22372230110
6/14-20/2221165760

(e) Johnson

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2239471131
8/10-15/223847960
6/14-20/2237461420

Table 9 shows the perceptions of which candidates better understand the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin.

Table 9: Who do you think better understands the problems faced by ordinary people in Wisconsin, …? (Among registered voters.)

(a) … Tony Evers or Tim Michels?

Poll datesTony EversTim MichelsBothNeitherDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2247410470

(b) … Mandela Barnes or Ron Johnson?

Poll datesMandela BarnesRon JohnsonBothNeitherDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2244401690

Table 10 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.”

Table 10: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values, or don’t they share your values? (Among registered voters.)

CandidateShares valuesDoesn’t share valuesDon’t know
Evers47485
Michels414711
Barnes444115
Johnson42517

Perceptions of incumbents’ performance

Table 11 shows the perceived effectiveness of Evers as governor and Johnson as a senator, among registered voters.

Table 11: How effective is [Tony Evers as governor of Wisconsin]/[Ron Johnson as a US Senator]? (Among registered voters.)

(a) Tony Evers

Poll datesVery effectiveSomewhat effectiveNot very effectiveNot at all effectiveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/221835202330

(b) Ron Johnson

Poll datesVery effectiveSomewhat effectiveNot very effectiveNot at all effectiveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/222030123070

Table 12 shows the views among registered voters of how Evers and Johnson responded to the coronavirus pandemic.

Table 12: Do you approve or disapprove of the way [Tony Evers]/[Ron Johnson] responded to the coronavirus pandemic? (Among registered voters.)

(a) Tony Evers

Poll datesStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/222723132980

(b) Ron Johnson

Poll datesStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/221717937181

Table 13 shows approval and disapproval among registered voters of how Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020.

Table 13: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2216221037150

Evers job approval

Table 14: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesNet approvalApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/22-3444780
8/10-15/222474581
6/14-20/223484561
4/19-24/226494371
2/22-27/229504181

Important issues

Table 15: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with …, (Among registered voters.)

IssueVery concernedSomewhat concernedNot too concernedNot at all concerned
Inflation702452
Crime6127102
Accurate vote count56211112
Public schools563372
Gun violence5526116
Abortion policy5324118
Taxes5132106
Climate change44291413
Illegal immigration38311811
Coronavirus22292325

Table 16: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Sept. 2022 (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesVery concernedSomewhat concernedNot too concernedNot at all concerned
9/6-11/22702452
8/10-15/22672740
6/14-20/22752041
4/19-24/22692361
2/22-27/22682831
10/26-31/21642861
8/3-8/214935113

Table 17: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (Among registered voters.)

(a) Sorted by concern among Republicans

IssueRepublicanIndependentDemocrat
Inflation926941
Accurate vote count765640
Taxes744826
Crime716147
Illegal immigration693219
Public schools536053
Gun violence395285
Abortion policy345477
Climate change173971
Coronavirus92333

(b) Sorted by concern among Democrats

IssueRepublicanIndependentDemocrat
Gun violence395285
Abortion policy345477
Climate change173971
Public schools536053
Crime716147
Inflation926941
Accurate vote count765640
Coronavirus92333
Taxes744826
Illegal immigration693219

(c) Sorted by concern among Independents

IssueRepublicanIndependentDemocrat
Inflation926941
Crime716147
Public schools536053
Accurate vote count765640
Abortion policy345477
Gun violence395285
Taxes744826
Climate change173971
Illegal immigration693219
Coronavirus92333

Abortion

Table 18: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

(a) September

Party IDFavorOpposeHaven’t heard of decisionDon’t KnowRefused
Total3063052
Republican5929084
Independent2866051
Democrat395020

(b) August

Party IDFavorOpposeHaven’t heard of decisionDon’t KnowRefused
Total3360142
Republican6228082
Independent3162223
Democrat592021

Table 19: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

(a) September

Party IDShould allowShould not allowDon’t KnowRefused
Total831052
Republican702083
Independent83962
Democrat96220

(b) August

Party IDShould allowShould not allowDon’t KnowRefused
Total88841
Republican791642
Independent87652
Democrat97110

Other issues

Table 20: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? (Among registered voters.)

Party IDApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
Total465031
Republican118530
Independent465040
Democrat851320

Table 21: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? (By education and age, among registered voters.)

EducationAgeApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
Non-college grad18-29742430
Non-college grad30-44494740
Non-college grad45-59385570
Non-college grad60+346322
College grad18-29762400
College grad30-44514640
College grad45-59425430
College grad60+455140

Table 22: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Party IDFeel safeWorriedDon’t know
Total76231
Republican78211
Independent75241
Democrat76231

Table 23: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Party IDVery concernedSomewhat concernedNot too concernedNot at all concernedDon’t know
Total61271020
Republican7123510
Independent61251131
Democrat47351530

Table 24: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? (By region among registered voters, Oct. 2021, April 2022, and Sept. 2022.)

RegionFeel safeWorriedDon’t know
City of Milwaukee52480
Rest of Milwaukee media market74242
Madison media market82171
Green Bay media market87121
Rest of north and west of state85150

Table 25: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? (By region among registered voters, Aug. and Sept. 2022.)

RegionVery concernedSomewhat concernedNot too concernedNot at all concernedDon’t know
City of Milwaukee7419700
Rest of Milwaukee media market7124500
Madison media market53341111
Green Bay media market48301562
Rest of north and west of state53321121

Table 26: Do you think the decision in 2020 to close schools and businesses and to restrict the size of public gatherings was an appropriate response to the coronavirus outbreak or was it an overreaction that did more harm than good? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesAppropriate responseOverreactionDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/22564130
2/22-27/22613530
8/3-8/21623521
10/21-25/20682650
6/14-18/20722530
5/3-7/20692641
3/24-29/20861030

Table 27: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Party IDReducing property taxesIncreasing spending on public schoolsDon’t knowRefused
Total415153
Republican692254
Independent464284
Democrat128530

Table 28: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community? (Among registered voters.)

Party IDVery satisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfiedVery dissatisfiedDon’t know
Total194320117
Republican1338221710
Independent174519126
Democrat28471726

Direction of state, Biden approval, Baldwin favorability

Table 29: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesRight directionWrong trackDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/22405371
8/10-15/22355690
6/14-20/22375660
4/19-24/22365670
2/22-27/22395381

Table 30: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/22405540
8/10-15/22405551
6/14-20/22405730
4/19-24/22435331
2/22-27/22435232

Table 31: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/2237401941
8/10-15/2239371860
6/14-20/2239372031
4/19-24/2243361730
2/22-27/2242361831

2020 election confidence and Trump favorability

Table 32: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)

Party IDVery confidentSomewhat confidentNot too confidentNot at all confidentDon’t knowRefused
Total4619161810
Republican1322293411
Independent4123171810
Democrat86101310

Table 33 shows the trend since 2021 in 2020 election confidence.

Table 33: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesVery confidentSomewhat confidentNot too confidentNot at all confidentDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/224619161810
8/10-15/224818151721
6/14-20/225116112100
4/19-24/224816122310
2/22-27/224819111920
10/26-31/214718121930
8/3-8/214819151610

Table 34: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (Total and by party identification, among registered voters.)

Party IDFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
Total3858130
Republican7916040
Independent3263131
Democrat494010

Table 35: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (Among registered voters.)

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t knowRefused
9/6-11/223858130
8/10-15/223857140
6/14-20/223956320
4/19-24/223658231
2/22-27/223657232
10/26-31/213857230
8/3-8/213855341

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