MILWAUKEE (NBC 26) — A new Marquette Law School national poll conducted Nov. 5–12, 2025, shows Democrats holding a modest advantage over Republicans in early expectations for the 2026 congressional elections. The survey, completed shortly after the Nov. 4 off-year elections, also reveals widespread frustration with both major parties, deep dissatisfaction with the recent government shutdown, and mixed but issue-sensitive evaluations of President Donald Trump’s job performance.
Democrats Lead in Early 2026 Vote Preference
Among registered voters, 49% say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, compared with 44% for Republicans. That gap widens among voters certain to cast a ballot: 53% prefer Democrats, 44% Republicans.
Watch: Democrats hold early edge in midterm elections, poll shows:
Party loyalty remains strong, with 96% of Democrats and 91% of Republicans sticking with their own party. Independents, however, lean Democratic by a wide margin, with 38% favoring a Democratic candidate and 17% choosing a Republican, while a significant number say they prefer neither.
Democrats also hold an advantage in voter enthusiasm:
- 75% of Democrats say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in 2026.
- 68% of Republicans say the same.
- Only 37% of independents report being certain to vote.
Views of Congress: Both Parties Viewed Negatively
The poll shows persistently low approval for both parties in Congress. Republicans in Congress are viewed slightly less negatively than Democrats, but both parties have more disapproval than approval.
One notable shift: Democrats’ approval of their own party rose sharply, from 53% in September to 64% in November. Independent voters grew more negative toward both parties during the same period.
Shutdown Fallout: Blame Shared, But Trump Takes a Hit
Public opinion is nearly divided on who is responsible for the recent federal government shutdown:
- 36% blame Republicans
- 33% blame Democrats
- 31% blame both equally
Notably, 75% disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the shutdown, including 51% of Republicans.
Health and Redistricting Issues: Clear Majorities
- 70% favor extending federal health insurance tax credits, an issue raised heavily during the shutdown.
- Mid-decade redistricting efforts launched in multiple states are opposed by 71% of Americans, including majorities in both parties.
Trump Approval: Stable Overall, Varied by Issue
President Trump’s overall approval stands at 43%, unchanged from September. Approval among Republicans remains high at 85%, though the share who “strongly approve” has dropped significantly since the start of his second term.
Approval varies sharply by issue:
- Highest: Israel–Hamas cease-fire negotiations (67% approve) and border security (54%)
- Lowest: Handling of Jeffrey Epstein-related documents (26%), the federal shutdown (25%), and economic aid to Argentina (21%)
Top Public Concerns: Inflation Still Dominates
For a full year, inflation and cost of living has been the top issue for Americans. In the latest poll:
- 36% say inflation matters most
- 20% cite the economy broadly
- 10% point to immigration/border security
Economic pessimism continues to rise:
- 39% say they are personally worse off than a year ago
- Ratings of the national economy as “poor” jumped from 20% in September to 29% in November
Tariffs, Foreign Policy, and Immigration
Public views on tariffs remain negative, with 56% saying tariffs hurt the U.S. economy. Two-thirds believe Trump uses tariffs as bargaining leverage rather than long-term policy.
On foreign affairs:
- 76% oppose U.S. efforts to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro
- Americans are split on U.S. military strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats
- Most oppose U.S. airstrikes inside Venezuela
- Support for aiding Ukraine has grown, with fewer people now feeling the U.S. is providing “too much” assistance
Views on Israel’s support levels remain roughly unchanged. Americans also hold highly unfavorable views of China, Xi Jinping, North Korea, and Kim Jong Un.
Immigration: Strong Support for Deportation, But Also for Work Permits
A majority—58%—favor deporting immigrants in the U.S. illegally. But support drops to 44% when immigrants have clean records and long-term U.S. residency.
At the same time, 72% support offering work permits to long-term undocumented immigrants with jobs and no criminal record, including:
- 58% of Republicans
- 66% of independents
- 89% of Democrats
Recent Events and Public Attention
The demolition of the White House East Wing splits opinion:
- 75% of Republicans call it modernization
- 69% of independents and 90% of Democrats say it should have been preserved
Posts by politicians involving racist, antisemitic, or violent content are overwhelmingly seen as signs of unfitness for office (75%).
The most-followed recent news items included deployment of National Guard in U.S. cities and the New York City mayoral election.
Favorability of Public Figures
Pope Leo XIV receives the highest ratings of any figure tested, with 49% favorable. Among political figures, all recorded net negative favorability:
- Zohran Mamdani: -9
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: -11
- J.D. Vance: -16
- Donald Trump: -17
- Kamala Harris: -19
About the Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll surveyed 1,052 adults nationwide using the SSRS Opinion Panel. It includes 903 registered voters and 602 likely voters. Margins of error range from ±3.3 to ±4.3 percentage points.
Complete results, methodology, and crosstabs are available at law.marquette.edu/poll.
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