The Milwaukee Brewers have been in first place for most of the 2017 season, but various projection models are still down on the team's playoff chances.
Noted projection website FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Brewers just a 21 percent chance to win the division, and a 27 percent chance to make the playoffs (via the division or wild card).
Despite Milwaukee's 1.5 game lead, FiveThirtyEight still believes the defending champion Chicago Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central, giving them a 59 percent chance to snag the division crown.
Other projection models are similarly pessimistic. The Brewers have a 28 percent chance to win the division, according to Baseball Prospectus. Meanwhile, the site slots the Cubs at 65 percent.
Fangraphs has all but handed the NL Central crown to Chicago - the Cubs division-winning odds are currently over 81 percent. Fangraphs has the Brewers at just 5.5 percent, which is lower than the fourth-place St. Louis Cardinals.
All three models predict the Brewers will finish between 79-82 wins, which would still be an upgrade over the preseason projections.