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New poll shows McCaskill, Hawley tied in tight U.S. Senate Race in Missouri

Posted at 12:09 PM, Aug 14, 2018

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – A new poll released after the Aug. 8 primary shows incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D – Missouri) in a tie with Republican Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley.

It is a seat the Democrats need to hang onto to have any chance of gaining control of the U.S. Senate. Currently, Republicans hold a 51-49 advantage, with VP Mike Pence able to cast the tiebreaker. 

The poll, conducted Aug. 8-9 by Missouri Scout, shows the race tied, which is in line with a series of polls conducted in the race since this spring.

Both candidates received 47 percent of the vote, with six percent of those polled saying they were undecided.

The poll also asked respondents their thoughts on amending the state constitution to permit the use of medical marijuana, with 54 percent of respondents approving.

Roughly 60 percent of respondents also said the state should increase its minimum wage to $8.60 per hour, with a stair-step increase of $0.85 per year to $12 per hour by 2023.

The poll was conducted by TJP Strategies, a Democratic consulting firm, on behalf of Missouri Scout, with 1,785 likely 2018 general election votes and a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

Missouri is not the only traditionally red state that Democrats hold a US Senate seat in. The seats in North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia could also be turnovers from the Democrats to the Republicans. For the Democrats to regain control of the Senate, not only would it need to hold on in traditionally red states, but also take two seats from the Republicans. The two best possibilities for the Democrats to make gains in the Senate are in Arizona and Nevada.