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Storm Team 4cast predicts El Nino winter in Milwaukee

Posted at 5:03 PM, Nov 09, 2018
and last updated 2018-11-09 18:05:18-05

MILWAUKEE -- We're getting a lot better at day to day forecasting but seasonal outlooks still pose as a daunting task.  When making a winter outlook, it's first important to determine if El Nino or La Nina conditions exist. 

El Nino is when waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean are above normal.  La Nina is when this body of water is below normal. 

This year, modest El Nino conditions have developed.  This tends to lead to slightly warmer temperatures but also more precipitation. 

The Arctic Oscillation pattern has also been trending positive, which should mean very few blasts of polar air.  Computer models are also trending warmer for the winter.  So with that said, we're forecasting a slightly warmer and slightly snowier winter than normal here in southeastern Wisconsin.